2026 Chip Supply Under Pressure: Why Your Next Workplace Tech Upgrade Is Already Late

That new office fit-out or network refresh you have pencilled in for 2026 may already be running behind schedule. While the world has largely moved on from the pandemic’s chaotic supply chain snarls, a new, more structural semiconductor squeeze is taking shape, and it is set to affect businesses across Southeast Asia and Australia where it matters most: their core infrastructure.

This is not another COVID-style disruption driven by factory shutdowns and logistics failures. It is a deliberate reallocation of global manufacturing capacity, driven by the extraordinary appetite of the AI industry for highly specialised chips and memory.Of note, Cisco has already alerted partners of impending supply shortages and price volatility.

Why AI Is Rewriting the Chip Playbook

As technology giants invest heavily in AI data centres, semiconductor manufacturing plants (or “fabs” – the factories where chips are produced) are shifting their priorities. These facilities are focusing on high-margin, advanced components such as High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM), GPUs, and other sophisticated logic devices that power AI workloads. This has created a zero-sum dynamic in which production of more common, “legacy” chips used in networking and audiovisual (AV) equipment is being squeezed.

The effect is uneven but significant. Memory (DRAM and NAND), network processors and switch ASICs, microcontrollers, power management ICs, and system-on-a-chip (SoC) components used in AV and collaboration systems are all under pressure from extended lead times and rising prices. Analysts expect a sustained memory shortage through at least 2026, with meaningful new manufacturing capacity unlikely to arrive before 2027–2028.

What This Means for Networking and AV

For most organisations, the consequences are felt in three main ways.

• Longer lead times: Orders for switches, wireless infrastructure, and specialised AV gear that once took weeks may now take many months, particularly when a single constrained component is required for a complex product.
  

• Higher prices: Component cost inflation is flowing straight into finished products, with DRAM pricing in some cases having increased several hundred percent over recent cycles.
  

• Slower refresh cycles: Some manufacturers are delaying product launches or redesigning platforms around more readily available components, which can limit choice and slow innovation in the short term.
  

For Australia and Southeast Asia, the picture is nuanced. The region is a major hub for semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging and is attracting significant investment, but it still relies heavily on imported finished equipment and remains exposed to the same global constraints on critical components.

A More Predictable, but Longer-Lasting, Crunch

Unlike the broad, panic-driven shortages of 2020–21, this cycle is more targeted and more predictable. It is rooted in long-term structural demand for AI hardware, combined with earlier underinvestment in mature manufacturing nodes that still produce many of the “everyday” chips embedded across networking and AV portfolios.

Industry forecasts suggest that tight supply, especially in memory and certain legacy components, is likely to persist through 2026, with relief dependent on multi-billion-dollar fabrication plants that will not contribute meaningful capacity until late in the decade. In practical terms, that means the era of just-in-time procurement for critical infrastructure is over, at least for now.

As Greg Parkhurst, Managing Director of First Aurora, notes, “We are not dealing with a temporary bottleneck, but a multi‑year reset in how and where the semiconductor industry allocates its capacity.”

What Businesses Should Do Now

In this environment, organisations need to move from reactive purchasing to deliberate, medium-term planning.

• Extend planning horizons: A 12‑month technology roadmap is no longer sufficient; for late-2026 networking and workplace technology projects, you should be talking your workplace technology partners now.
  

• Engage early: Open structured discussions with vendors and integrators now about 2026 requirements, including key dependency equipment such as core switches, Wi‑Fi infrastructure, video conferencing platforms, and digital signage.
  

• Budget for inflation: Hardware budgets should assume elevated and potentially volatile pricing for memory and other constrained components for the next several years. The best way to avoid this is to select partners and lock in Purchase Orders now and avoiding lengthy and bureaucratic approval processes as vendor price expiry timeframes are shortening. That means extended price validity is a thing of the past.
  

• Optimise existing assets: Conduct systematic audits of current network and AV infrastructure to identify which systems are critical, which can be refreshed early, and where firmware or software optimisation can safely extend asset life.
  

How First Aurora Can Help

Given this backdrop, the organisations that will navigate the “great chip race” most effectively are those that integrate infrastructure, finance, and supply risk into a coherent medium-term plan. First Aurora is well placed to support businesses across Southeast Asia and Australia in building 12-month workplace technology roadmaps that reflect the realities of semiconductor supply, pricing, and product development cycles.

By combining market insight with practical experience in networking and AV deployments, First Aurora can help you prioritise critical refreshes, structure procurement to secure supply, and design resilient, standards-based architectures that remain adaptable as the market evolves. To discuss how this applies to your organisation, businesses should contact First Aurora here to arrange a consultation.